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Crude Oil Firms Ahead Of OPEC Meeting

opec-logoAhead of a three-day OPEC meeting, here is what my analysis argues is the most likely price path for crude oil — rumors and stories of an output freeze notwithstanding.

Purely from a technical perspective, if the Sept. 20 low at $42.55 ended the Aug.-Sept. correction, and if the first upmove of a new upleg off of the Sept. 12 low ended at yesterday’s high of $46.52, then recent weakness represents a deep pullback of 55%, ahead of the next upmove.

From a pattern perspective, as long as $42.55 remains a viable pivot low, my read on the oil pattern remains constructive — for upside continuation from wherever this deep pullback runs.

Oil’s optimal area to pivot again to the upside is around $44, which is where it gapped up last Tuesday (Sept. 20), immediately after the bullish API Inventory report was released.

60-Minute Crude Oil

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